By Andrew McCredie, Vancouver Sun - Clinging to the past rather than embracing the future has long been the death knell for automakers.
That lesson has obviously been learned by today's global automakers, as there isn't one without a hybrid or alternative-powered vehicle either on the road or on the drawing board.
The long-awaited electric-gas hybrid Chevrolet Volt will be in British Columbia GM dealerships by summer, and the Nissan Leaf, heralded by the Japanese automaker as the "world's most affordable, zero-emission electric car," goes on sale here in the fall.
The recent L.A. Auto Show featured more than 100 new alternative-powered vehicles.
In addition, the world's largest consumer of all-things oil, the United States, is promoting an energy policy that for the first time ever seriously encourages the development and expansion of alternative energy systems. That the U.S. government's motivation behind this is based more on energy security than environmental impact might seem misplaced and even a little disingenuous, but in the end the result will greatly enhance both. One of those end-justifies-the-means deals.
Of course, it will take years and years for North American drivers to wean themselves off the gasoline pump. To that end, the other over-arching them at the 2010 L.A. Show was development of extremely fuel-efficient gasoline engines, a trend that will continue well beyond 2011.
What underscores all of this is that rather than one solution replacing the internal combustion engine, there will be a regional approach to providing alternative-fuelled vehicles. Here's a look at a trio of alternatives sure to make a lasting impact in the 12 months ahead.
Electricity
Far and away the top dog in the alternative-energy source kennel, electricity is ideal for Metro Vancouver drives.
In British Columbia, where our extensive hydro-powered network makes the production of electricity both clean and cheap, a vehicle such as the all-electric Nissan Leaf is a great replacement for a gaspowered vehicle. However, in places that create electricity from coal plants, albeit so-callwed "clean-burning," electric vehicles aren't much of a solution in terms of environmental impact, nor in terms of cost-per-kilometre.
Electric vehicles also have a very limited range in comparison to similar-sized gaspowered vehicles, and already "range anxiety" has entered the lexicon. Cold weather and hilly terrain are two variables sure to affect the Leaf's purported range of 160 kilometres on a full charge, with some estimates knocking off some 40 per cent due to such driving conditions.
Still, interest in the Leaf, and the gas-electric Volt, is very high in Canada, and those early adopters seem just fine with being cast as guinea pigs for the rest of us. Critics like to point out the high-price of the Leaf and Volt when compared to similar sized gas-powered vehicles, even with government rebates.
True enough, but it's important to remember that in the early days of the internal combustion engine, automobiles were only for the very wealthy, who themselves served as guinea pigs for that emerging technology.
Hydrogen
Honda has demonstrated the real-world viability of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles with its FCS Clarity program in California.
The pilot project began in 2007 with 200 production models being built over the course of three years, and currently there are a number of Californians using the Clarity as their daily driver. New hydrogen fuelling stations are popping up between San Francisco and Los Angeles, with plans for many more in the near future.
According to published data from 2009, hydrogen made from natural gas costs between $5 US and $10 US per kilogram, and while that is double the equivalent of gasoline, fuel cell vehicles double the efficiency of internal combustion engines. So far, according to Honda, the Clarity averages 100 kilometres per litre of hydrogen.
Considering North America has some of the richest natural gas fields anywhere in the world, hydrogen-powered vehicles could go a long way in America's stated goal of energy security.
Diesel
It may seem odd to include diesel fuel in a discussion about alternative fuel, but in North America it's poised to become a much bigger player in the future than it is today. Europeans have long embraced diesel fuel, and diesel engine advancements in terms of emissions and efficiencies have made the crude oil derivative a viable alternative to regular gasoline.
And as fuel prices continue their global march northward, diesel produced from natural gas becomes a very distinct possibility. And possibly a very profitable one.
Just last month South African company Sasol announced it would spend $1 billion US to buy a half-interest in a Canadian shale gas field with the sold intent of turning natural gas into diesel and other liquids.
According to the New York Times, "Sasol figures that natural gas needed for a gallon of diesel, plus operating costs, comes to about $1.50 US a gallon."
In comparison, a gallon of diesel made from crude oil currently costs more than $2 US before refining. Ergo, as the price of a barrel of oil rises, so too does the cost of diesel made from oil. So, don't discount diesel produced from natural gas as an alternative fuel for North America's future.
The automotive world is poised for the biggest changes this coming year and 2011 is the year of driving alternatively.
No comments:
Post a Comment